Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
PhD Student in Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
2
Professor, Department of Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
3
PhD in Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
4
PhD Student, Department of Public Administration, Faculty of Management and Economics, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran.
10.22054/qjsd.2026.91879.2752
Abstract
Elite migration represents a critical, complex strategic challenge for Iran, significantly threatening the country’s long-term capacity for sustainable development and national resilience. This study aims to identify and deeply analyze the long-term, cascading consequences of the continuing trend of human capital flight from a futures research perspective. The present study employed a robust qualitative research design based on the Futures Wheel analytical methodology to explore complex interconnected outcomes. The statistical population comprised subject-matter experts, from which a sample of fifteen individuals was selected through purposeful sampling. Data were collected using a researcher-developed Futures Wheel interview protocol, and the subsequent findings were processed using systematic qualitative content analysis. The results revealed several key first-order consequences categorized into scientific-technological, economic, socio-cultural, and governance domains. Major consequences include the decline of the national research system, technological stagnation, the rapid erosion of social capital, and the weakening of governance efficiency, with each factor triggering deeper subsequent impacts. The comprehensive findings clearly indicated that the continuation of elite migration operates as a dangerous systematic process and a negative feedback loop leading to the continuous weakening of the country’s productive structures. Consequently, this trend significantly limits the nation’s capacity to address future challenges and achieve its essential sustainable development goals in the long run.
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